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Dec 5, 2012
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you have fiscal cliff, you have hurricane sandy. are you optimistic about what's happening in the economy if you take out the potential shocks? >> i don't think we make any change at all. i think the job market is producing 150,000 jobs per month, that's what we've been producing since the beginning of the year, over the past year, past two years, some months we're a little lower, higher, sometimes seasonal adjustment. if you take this month's number and x out sandy, that's over 200,000. >> that will add some jobs, that's not a fair comparison. >> so 200,000 minus 60 is 150 -- >> so you're right there. >> i don't think the economy has chang chang changed deappreciably over the last year. >> well, i think coming into friday's number, we're a little -- we don't think there's 80,000 worth of impact, might be closer to 40,000 or 50,000. whatever, there's been an impact and i agree with mark's point, 1 in about 150,000 job creation in the economy and i don't know that meaningfully changes. but i would say, if anything, the bias next year
you have fiscal cliff, you have hurricane sandy. are you optimistic about what's happening in the economy if you take out the potential shocks? >> i don't think we make any change at all. i think the job market is producing 150,000 jobs per month, that's what we've been producing since the beginning of the year, over the past year, past two years, some months we're a little lower, higher, sometimes seasonal adjustment. if you take this month's number and x out sandy, that's over 200,000....
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Dec 4, 2012
12/12
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of sandy jobless claims relative to katrina. if we don't have that chart -- there it is, great. it goes up and now we're in the down. it may pop back. but the trouble is that the big surge there is probably in the week of -- or is going to affect the week of the employment survey. >> the last week. >> and now, guys, if you have the next one back there, i don't know if you have it, you can see there what we show there is we're looking for only 80,000 jobs on friday. 95 in the private sector. that's a big jobs -- it might be hurricane related, but it could also be cliff related. there's these two things just backing up what joe said, folks, we've got enough to worry about without the stuff that we could probably fix and move on, there's enough going on. you can see that we're going to be substantially below the six-month average that we've been running there. and that shows that, you know, we were not robust to begin with, and this is why guys at the fed are concerned about things like this. if you're going 3% or 4% gdp, you have
of sandy jobless claims relative to katrina. if we don't have that chart -- there it is, great. it goes up and now we're in the down. it may pop back. but the trouble is that the big surge there is probably in the week of -- or is going to affect the week of the employment survey. >> the last week. >> and now, guys, if you have the next one back there, i don't know if you have it, you can see there what we show there is we're looking for only 80,000 jobs on friday. 95 in the private...
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Dec 7, 2012
12/12
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now, again, back to hurricane sandy. from the commissioner's statement, the storm we saw happen on october 29th, the next pay period ended on november 12th. the way bls essentially keeps score it says workers have to be off work for the entire pay period to be counted on the negative side. on the household survey side, persons who missed work for weather-related events are counted as employed whether or not they are paid for the time off. we did have a drop in the labor force participation rate, down 0.2 to 63.6%. how did we get to 7.7% unemployment? basically the number of unemployed persons dropped more than the number of employed and there were downward trends in both those categories. lots to chew on. back to you guys. >> hampton, thank you. we are kind of scratching our heads. let's get more reaction from our panel. mark zandi and jared bernstein are here with us. mark, what do you make of this number? we've set this up as numbers were not going to be things we watched closely because of sandy. >> i'd say two things
now, again, back to hurricane sandy. from the commissioner's statement, the storm we saw happen on october 29th, the next pay period ended on november 12th. the way bls essentially keeps score it says workers have to be off work for the entire pay period to be counted on the negative side. on the household survey side, persons who missed work for weather-related events are counted as employed whether or not they are paid for the time off. we did have a drop in the labor force participation...
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Dec 17, 2012
12/12
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they haven't addressed the aid for sandy. it's now been six weeks after sandy and nothing has been done on that front. >> the gears move slowly, but the aide for andy will pass. it's just a question of when they get it done. and, of course, because that involves additional spending, that factors into the debt limit in the fiscal cliff negotiations, as well. >> john, do you know what is available to the president administratively, not legislatively in terms of gun regulation? >> first of all, all the issues related to enforcement of existing laws. >> what mayor bloomberg said is it was illegal weapons at that point that he was talking about. >> 77,000 for seven lives of something. would the gun lobby argue for astringent background checks for mental illness? >> probably. it depends on how it's framed and how it's enforced. but, you know, they've taken a pretty doctrine-aire view towards opposing anything under the nose under the camel's tent. feinstein is now going to reintroduce that bill. she passed it in the clinton adminis
they haven't addressed the aid for sandy. it's now been six weeks after sandy and nothing has been done on that front. >> the gears move slowly, but the aide for andy will pass. it's just a question of when they get it done. and, of course, because that involves additional spending, that factors into the debt limit in the fiscal cliff negotiations, as well. >> john, do you know what is available to the president administratively, not legislatively in terms of gun regulation?...
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Dec 13, 2012
12/12
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that's in the range. 400 we thought was sandy. and now going down below 350 i think some economists, you know what, maybe the job market is a little bit better than we expected. the real disconnect that's out there, andrew, is we've reduced capital spending but not hiring. >> right. >> usually those things work together when they cut cap-ex they also cut workers to go along with that. they seem to have cut cap-ex on maybe a temporary, i'm worried about the fiscal cliff basis, but kept their employees on board. that seems to be the case right now. and presents the possibility of making some progress. >> they come back with some more cap-ex then we've got a shot -- >> did we get rick to talk about the fed yesterday? time for a -- some wisdom from rick? >> i'm here. >> rick, so what did you make of that? do you understand what policy is now? before you tell me how much you disagree with it, i just want to know if you understand it. >> do you understand it? >> no, i don't. i don't. i wanted to see if we were simpatico on that story. >
that's in the range. 400 we thought was sandy. and now going down below 350 i think some economists, you know what, maybe the job market is a little bit better than we expected. the real disconnect that's out there, andrew, is we've reduced capital spending but not hiring. >> right. >> usually those things work together when they cut cap-ex they also cut workers to go along with that. they seem to have cut cap-ex on maybe a temporary, i'm worried about the fiscal cliff basis, but...
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Dec 10, 2012
12/12
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some of that is sandy. you can't disentangle it. i'm sure it would have been better if it weren't for the uncertainty. we saw how bad it was in the summer of '11 and it will be the same now. >> i very much agree with ian on this point, that the uncertainty is associated with the fiscal cliff is at least a percentage point on the fourth quarter. and could be more than that. it's just a lurking weight on the business sector. and if we are going to get this growth, i think we've got to have a little bit more certainty on taxes, on regulation, and the trajectory of fiscal policy going forward. >> what i hear you both saying, though, and you're talking about spending issue, and not worrying so much about that, but i also hear you saying it would be a big mistake to raise taxes. >> absolutely. yeah. >> but the top 2%, is that the least deleterious people to raise it on? >> yeah, it would be. but right now i'd prefer not to raise taxes on anybody. but if you're going to do it, then the people at the lowest propensity to consume -- >> you d
some of that is sandy. you can't disentangle it. i'm sure it would have been better if it weren't for the uncertainty. we saw how bad it was in the summer of '11 and it will be the same now. >> i very much agree with ian on this point, that the uncertainty is associated with the fiscal cliff is at least a percentage point on the fourth quarter. and could be more than that. it's just a lurking weight on the business sector. and if we are going to get this growth, i think we've got to have...
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Dec 3, 2012
12/12
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some of that is attribute knowledge to superstorm sandy. an estimated quarter million vex were destroyed. those numbers will be out this morning. it would only say that it is speaking to, quote, interested parties. but delta air lines is involved in those sdgzs. virgin is the second largest airline at heath row. >>> and lenny dykstra will be sentenced today. he was found to have hidden and stole sports memorabilia other items that were supposed to be part of a bankruptcy filing. >>> the game of political chicken, we were looking to rise above the partisan politics and trying to get something done. david walker, ceo of the america comeback initiative, steve mcmahon, co-founder of purple strategies, you guys have been on for a while and we've talked about a lot of things. steve, just 1:30 ag ago, you made a point talking about the bush tax cuts. and i said the tax cuts have been near and dear and you said at least bush was smart enough to know that we couldn't afford them so they were sunseted. >> so they were sunseted. >> that may happen. in
some of that is attribute knowledge to superstorm sandy. an estimated quarter million vex were destroyed. those numbers will be out this morning. it would only say that it is speaking to, quote, interested parties. but delta air lines is involved in those sdgzs. virgin is the second largest airline at heath row. >>> and lenny dykstra will be sentenced today. he was found to have hidden and stole sports memorabilia other items that were supposed to be part of a bankruptcy filing....
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Dec 11, 2012
12/12
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i don't know -- >> sandy didn't do it. >> i don't know how to make it any better. all right, time heals all wounds. hopefully next time we'll hear some better news from you. >> i hope so, too. thanks, joe, thanks andrew. >> maybe we'll get some better news right now. steve liesman joins us with the results there cnbc's latest fed survey. steve? can you make it any better? >> i don't know about that. what we have, andrew, is overwhelming support from our -- or expectation from our respondents, 48 respondents, economists, wall street strategists, and analysts, that the fed will replace twist with outright asset purchases. disagreement on how they'll do it and increasing concern about all these purchases and the effect on the market. let's start off with the disagreement about how they're going to do it. we asked people, will the fed purchase only treasuries when it replaces operation twist? or will it purchase treasuries and mortgages? you can see that they're about split on this. unclear what chairman bernanke is going to announce tomorrow. now, how about how much q
i don't know -- >> sandy didn't do it. >> i don't know how to make it any better. all right, time heals all wounds. hopefully next time we'll hear some better news from you. >> i hope so, too. thanks, joe, thanks andrew. >> maybe we'll get some better news right now. steve liesman joins us with the results there cnbc's latest fed survey. steve? can you make it any better? >> i don't know about that. what we have, andrew, is overwhelming support from our -- or...
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Dec 14, 2012
12/12
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and the labor department also saying that superstorm sandy -- >> impact of that. >> on data collection for the month of november. >> interesting. >> one thing we have seen in the wake of the hurricane is a rise in prices. but apparently not happening this time around. . >> mr. liesman, thank you. mr. santelli, thank you. >> thank you. >> all right. our next guest is a member of the fix the debt campaign and while he's trying to get washington to avoid the fiscal cliff, he's also running aerospace giant boeing and joining us now from chicago is jim mcnerney, boeing chairman and ceo. mr. mcnerney. great to see you. earlier we said we do want you to fix the fiscal cliff, obviously, if you have time. but we also want you to make great airplanes and make sure you've got those totally perfect before you really start. you know, we can't put everything on you at this point. >> are you asking about the 787, joe? >> no. just in general, we want the safest planes, but you know what? i do have to ask you about that eventually with the generator and the qatar stuff. but just in general we don't exp
and the labor department also saying that superstorm sandy -- >> impact of that. >> on data collection for the month of november. >> interesting. >> one thing we have seen in the wake of the hurricane is a rise in prices. but apparently not happening this time around. . >> mr. liesman, thank you. mr. santelli, thank you. >> thank you. >> all right. our next guest is a member of the fix the debt campaign and while he's trying to get washington to avoid...